Its been a while since I followed the “scene”. Thats probably because I went ahead and bought a Canon 40D even though I said I wouldnt. After reading all the anecdotal evidence about the increase in AF performance, I figured I should go for it. That, plus I sold my Canon 30D for $600 to a friend, so it was a short jump to the 40D.

But enough about me.. lets get on with the rumors.. the reason why you’re really here. I think we, me plus most of the photography gear rumor whores, are pretty confident there will be a Canon EOS 5D Mark II come Photokina in August 2008. What is unknown still are the specs. Although as we get closer to August, there’s no doubt that the rumors will get closer and closer to the truth. Here’s the latest rumor I’ve heard:

Canon EOS 5D Mark II (or possibly Canon EOS 3D? baby brother to the 1D?)
Resolution: 20 megapixel, full-frame sensor
FPS: 5fps
LCD: 3″ 640×480
AF: 19 point
ISO: 50-6400
Memory Card/Storage: CF & SD
Sealing: 1D-style, true weather sealing
Price: $2999 USD

The resolution seems somewhat high to me. With the Canon EOS 1Ds Mark III being 21, I really doubt the successor to the Canon EOS 5D is going to be 20. I’m still thinking 16-18 megapixels (as I’ve said mentioned earlier). I’m a little mixed about the frame-rate. On one hand, 5fps is kind of the “minimum” for a pro-level or prosumer-level body, especially considering the Canon 40D is at 6.5fps and the Canon 450D/XSi is at 3.5fps. So in that sense, 5fps is believable. But the Canon 1Ds Mark III is also 5 fps. But I suspect the successor to the Canon 5D will come in at 5fps based on the first reason. They’re not going to let the 5D Mark II encroach on the 1D Mark III territory (or even anywhere near 8.5fps since that has long been Canon’s standard for sports photography, Canon 1D, 1D Mk II, 1D MkIIn). The LCD screen is a no brainer since Nikon has brought that into the game. Take a quick peek at DP Review or POTN and you’ll see daily posts complaining about Canon LCDs being crappy. Can’t say I disagree. The 19 point AF, I’ve heard before also. I think this would really help push the 5D Mark II (3D) into its rightful place in the Canon line-up (and the competitive landscape, even). ISO 50-6400 was introduced in the Mark IIIs (1D and 1Ds), so it wouldnt be unreasonable to believe they’re going to include this, especially considering ISO 50 was present in the 5D. Although Canon could skimp and just make it ISO 50-3200 and still make it an “upgrade” (over the 5D). So don’t be surprised if that does indeed happen.. somewhere.. read on 🙂 . Weather sealing would be nice and would really make it more of a pro-body. Left up to Canon, I’m positive they would’ve left this out. However, since Nikon has made it a “standard” feature in their lower bodies, Canon can’t ignore this one, not for the #3 camera in their lineup. The price is also what I would suspect. The Canon 5D MSRP’ed at $2,599 when it was introduced. This price, $2999 USD, would represent the upgrade to the existing Canon 5D. Recall that when the 30D was released, the MSRP was slightly below the 20D. When the 40D was announced, it was slightly below that of the 30D. So I’d almost be willing to bet on the $2,999 USD MSRP of the Canon EOS 5D Mark II considering its an upgrade. So what would fill the gap between $2999 and the 40D at $1000??? Read on.. 😎

Now, whats more interesting is, the rumor of a more inexpensive “5D successor” has once again surfaced. I’ve mentioned this in the past.. and I really do believe this is the best bet for Canon. But here are the rumored specs of the Canon EOS “7D” (or 6D, but a higher number than the 5D, for sure):

Canon EOS 7D (or possibly Canon EOS 6D? baby brother to the 3D?)
Resolution: 14 megapixel, full-frame sensor
FPS: 3fps
LCD: 3″ (rez?)
AF: 9 point
ISO: 100-3200
Memory Card/Storage: CF & SD
Sealing: 40D-style, wanna-be weather sealing
Price: $1999 USD

This camera would basically be the “30D” of the 5D line.. basically, an incremental upgrade and an incremental price increase (over street prices in this case). With a small bump to 14 megapixels, the full-frame sensor could very well be the cousin to the existing 5D sensor with some tweaking to give it 2 more megapixels (just like how the Canon 20D to 30D gained 2 megapixels). FPS would basically be the small upgrade from the 5D’s current 2.5fps. I think the screen would still be a 3″ 640×480 (aka Nikon style) screen. Nikon is basically playing out the screen so if Canon doesnt follow suit, they’d just look like they’re skimping here. AF would probably be borrowed from the 40D, although I would think it could just use the existing 5D focusing system (9 point with 6 points for assist). At $1,999 USD, it would be the prosumer full-frame body.

So Canon’s line up would look like this:

EOS Rebel XS/1000D (~$500)
EOS Rebel XSi/450D(~$600)
EOS 40D (~$1000)
EOS 6D/7D (~$2000)
EOS 3D/5D Mark II (~$3000)
EOS 1D Mark III (~$4000)
EOS 1Ds Mark III (~$8000)

This would basically allow Canon to compete with Nikon at different levels. I’ve said this before, but why would a company want to compete with another company.. if they don’t have to? Anyone that believes a company likes competition is an idiot. So think about this.. where does the Nikon D300 fall in against Canon’s line up at $1800? Way above the Canon 40D (which people erroneously believe competes with the D300) or slightly below a 14 megapixel full-frame Canon body with decent specs. Is the D300 faster? Hell yeah. Does it have more bells and whistles? Hell yeah. But if I want comparable speed and features, I’d be looking at the 40D for $800 less (MSRP). But hell, for $200 more, I have MORE MEGAPIXELS (probably the biggest selling point in retail) and its full-framed (something that would appeal to people who know what they are looking for).

I’ve said it before, Canon can’t ignore that gaping hole in their line up (currently being ~$1300 for a 40D, MSRP, up to the Canon 5D’s MSRP for $3299). Its a gap no one has been able to fill.

So with all that crap I just wrote above. I’m gonna have to say I’m kind of believing these rumors. Some are a little wacky, but in general, I think these are going to be pretty close to the real deal.

So with that said, I’ll say it again.. my next body will be the Canon EOS 3D/5D Mark II..

Keeping score?

Canon 3D, 5D Mark II, 6D, 7D Rumors from December 2007
Canon 3D, 5D Mark II, 6D, 7D Rumors from February 2008